Friday, February 10, 2012
I am, by nature, an optimist. But I have to admit that in 2009 I too was pretty was caught up in the negative market and media commotion, awaiting the next catastrophe. It was especially challenging being a banking professional working in the capital markets in Ontario. I sat around many boardroom tables foretelling a long duration of weak global economies, soft markets, capital access challenges, and the associated fallout.
Where am I now? Cautiously optimistic.
Economies and markets are stabilizing, and Canada has the strongest banking structure within which to recover. From an Atlantic Canadian perspective, regional companies are well positioned. This can be attributed to conservative financial management prior to the market meltdown. But despite financial strengths and stabilizing indicators, many Atlantic businesses remain as armchair critics until a low-risk turning point presents itself.
The optimist in me says it's time to refocus and re-engage in growth.
The focus for 2010 and forward should be: investing in strategy for the next 12-24 months; build a risk management plan; define resources from talent through to financial capital; and go forward with conviction and passion.
Many have spent the last 18 months being short-term focused. In some cases, this has meant living week to week. To build sustainable and differentiated ventures, it's time to look forward and execute.
Where am I still cautious? With respect to bumps that will be encountered in the recovery cycle, I see two areas: small business failures and access to capital.
First, I believe small businesses are still vulnerable to the fallout from negative economic and market conditions. The impact to smaller business lags the larger business impact. In other words, I am anticipating additional business failures within the small business segment. But this is all part of the cycle and needs to be worked through.
I am also cautious about access to capital for companies. While there is some thawing in the debt markets (over $20 million), some Canadian banks are investing their balance sheet in the United States where local banks aren't meeting emerging deal flow. These deals are large and the revenue opportunities even larger.
Will this trend constrain access to debt capital in Canada? It could. The good news is that the Atlantic debt-capital market has more relationship elements than the Ontario markets, and should benefit companies negotiating debt deals in the near term.
Below $20 million, I hear anecdotally that commercial banks are layering in additional diligence, tightening terms, and increasing spreads. While above $20 million is market driven, below $20 million is relationship driven.
My advice is to manage your banking relationship strategically. Know what your bank needs to get out of the relationship and understand its approach in these current markets. Be able to clearly articulate what you need, want, and expect. Negotiate your partnership. Each party needs to meet a business plan, define risks, mitigate risks, and grow opportunities. Strategic capital discussions are essential to supporting growth objectives.
It's time to leverage the competitive advantage of Canada's banking stability, the financial stability of Atlantic Canadian businesses, and the talent of the leaders running these businesses. It's time to move off the sideline.
Personally, I'm following and interested in renewable energy, health care, and M&A activity attributed to the business succession and the talent gap arising from the retirements. What are you focused on?
Lisa Haydon is an experienced corporate finance and strategic management professional based in Halifax.
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