The speakers took to the podium one by one, each framing the challenge in a unique, though equally bleak, way. The occasion was the Future NB Summit, held in Moncton in early December 2010. The focus: Reversing New Brunswick’s economic and fiscal fortunes. But how? With participatory leadership.

Without decisive action, economist Don Drummond told delegates, New Brunswick will be saddled with a $2-billion deficit and a $17.5-billion debt within five years. By 2015–16, a quarter from every dollar New Brunswickers hand to the government will be consumed by debt payments. “I think that’s rather discouraging from a citizen’s perspective,” said Drummond, while recommending a five-year spending freeze and possible HST hike as a fix. “I’m not sure it’s possible to do it without some pain being inflicted.”

Fellow speaker and former Conservative premier Bernard Lord took a more paternal approach, arguing that New Brunswick is committing “intergenerational theft” by unjustly spending cash that future generations must pay back. “Eventually you have to pay the bill,” said Lord. “And that time has come. We can’t keep piling on and asking our children to pay for it. It’s wrong—and it’s not sustainable.”

Lord’s is but one voice in a growing choir, and it isn’t limited to New Brunswick. The swelling chorus sings of a bleak future, complicated by an aging and stagnating population, uncertainty over future federal transfer payments, and enormous health care costs, which Drummond noted are exceeding revenue growth by roughly 6% annually in New Brunswick. 

Such mounting pressures have led David Campbell, a Moncton-based economic development consultant, to some dire conclusions. “Over time, there will be a dramatic reduction in public services and a large drop in population,” he says. “You’re looking at a fundamentally changed landscape for the Maritime provinces. The region could simply become an outpost of mining and fishing and forestry, with the rest of the economic activity drying up. By 2030 we’re probably looking at a forced Maritime Union, not on the terms set forward by people here but imposed by the rest of Canada.  That’s the apocalyptic vision, but without growth of the private economy or the discovery of oil, I don’t see any other option.”

The region’s only choice, in Campbell’s opinion, is to launch a “growth agenda.” Simply put, the private sector economy must be cultivated to grow at 2% to 4% each year. Governments must abandon their habit of sprinkling grants and loans to a hodgepodge of companies and instead target specific sectors that show promise. For example, Nova Scotia could aggressively pursue video game production, animation, and green energy, while New Brunswick could promote shale gas exploration and the design and fabrication of large industrial components such as wind turbines and nuclear energy equipment.

But how to proceed? To start, Campbell says industry stakeholders should make a compelling case to show government what’s needed to transform their individual sector into a “major growth engine.” For Campbell, who started his career luring call centre and back-office jobs to New Brunswick in the early 1990s, the current situation is plain: the region cannot hope to maintain its population or fund its extensive public services without expanding the private sector significantly.

“Nova Scotia and New Brunswick aren’t going to fall off a cliff, but there will be tough times ahead,” says Campbell. “We will see a significant ratcheting down of public services. There will be hospital and school closures, and roads that won’t be built. The quality of health care will eventually decline to the point where even older people will try to move out of the region. If you want to go to a hospital and you live in Minto or Pugwash, you’re going to have to drive. That’s the future for this region if we don’t get it right.”

Politics and pedagogy

It’s a prophecy that Scott Brison also feels his home province will surely meet, if government doesn’t tackle the four Ds: debt, deficit, demographics, and decline. According to the Liberal MP and former investment banker, Nova Scotia is also home to an “ominous” debt ($13 billion and counting), massive deficits (predicted to be $370 million in 2011–12), the second-oldest population in Canada (ahead only of Newfoundland and Labrador), high taxes, and “near-toxic levels of complacency.”

As Brison sees it, the combined strength of those forces is driving Nova Scotia into decline. “There’s a fiscal freight train coming at us, but federal, provincial, and municipal politicians and business leaders aren’t talking about it,” says the Kings–Hants MP. “We’re whistling past the graveyard on this. And tinkering isn’t going to fix it.”

Not content to simply point out the problem, Brison proceeds to rattle off a list of potential remedies. First, government spending must be reduced. And the axe should fall first on the province’s “bloated public service” and overstocked legislature. As Brison notes, Nova Scotia elects 52 MLAs to represent fewer than one million people, while Ontario elects just 107 legislative members for a population exceeding 13 million. Then there are Nova Scotia’s numerous school and health boards. “Do we actually need all those bureaucracies?” says Brison. “The size of government in all four Atlantic provinces is too big. Things are out of control.”

Brison isn’t finished. He also wants Nova Scotia to sell non-essential assets, such as the Nova Scotia Liquor Corporation, which posted a profit of nearly
$220 million in 2009–10. “If it made $220 million run by bureaucrats, it would probably make even more run by retailers with skin in the game,” says Brison, estimating the Liquor Corp. could be sold for $3 to $4 billion, funds that could be used to dramatically reduce the debt.

Brison acknowledges that one major obstacle prevents government from slashing spending and selling Crown corporations: the public. Citizens, he insists, will not endorse such measures until they are properly informed of the province’s dire fiscal state. “Part of politics is pedagogy, so before you start bringing in the tough prescriptions, you’d better make sure your citizens are aware of the problem,” he says. “Once they’re aware of the severity, they’ll accept tough decisions—in fact, they’ll demand them. If we don’t make difficult decisions now, we’re going to be forced to make excruciating decisions in five or 10 years. It’s a question of leadership.”

New leadership thinking

If the Future NB summit proved anything, it’s that leadership can bubble up from plenty of other sources than government. Organized by the New Brunswick Business Council, the conference drew 250 concerned delegates from across business, labour, academia, health care, education, government, and the military. In fact, nobody stood out more at the summit than LCol. Tony Weber from CFB Gagetown, clad in his decorated Armed Forces uniform.

While the first day of the summit was dominated by sobering speeches, the second day was imbued with a sense of optimism and purpose. After breaking into working groups, delegates presented their ideas. Among the proposals: improved child care and a rural investment tax credit. Francis McGuire, the animated CEO of Moncton-based Major Drilling, implored his fellow attendees to boost their investment in local companies. “If you’re not able to put 5% to 10% of your personal wealth into New Brunswick companies today or tomorrow, you should leave the room,” he said.

But it was perhaps Weber who proved most captivating, referring energetically to his group as a Tiger Team, a military term used to describe a special unit assembled to solve a key task. The Tiger Team is one of four groups still soldiering on since the summit’s conclusion. Each unit is led by a handful of “champions” and is focused on solving a specific issue from the summit. Though he entered the conference with no such ambitions, Weber now finds himself co-leading the workforce-development group along with Patrick Lacroix and Christine Taylor. Their assignment: bolster education and training, boost immigration, and resolve a puzzling New Brunswick structural problem—the contradictory presence of jobs without people and people without jobs.

New Brunswick’s unemployment rate is hovering around 10%. Yet Wes Armour, of Armour Transport, told summit delegates that he’s forced to recruit truck drivers from Ontario. Similarly, industry leader and conference organizer David Ganong lamented his need to bring in foreign workers to run his St. Stephen candy factory. So why are unemployed New Brunswickers turning away from those jobs? “There doesn’t seem to be a shortage of work,” says Weber. “But there seems to be an opportunity to better align the workforce with the work that’s out there.” Weber and his Tiger Team are organizing a second, smaller summit to be held this summer to drill into that and other labour force issues. The hope is to glean answers from immigration and education experts, as well as university and college officials. Upon reflection, Weber says Future NB revealed two stark facts: that New Brunswick is in the midst of a daunting phase in its history, and that the situation can be remedied. 

“Of course these problems can be resolved,” says Weber. “The solution lies with the people of New Brunswick. And there’s phenomenal potential that’s untapped.”